The Rut – a unanimous term that sparks excitement, anxiety, and giddiness amongst the deer hunting community. It’s the equivalent of Christmas, the 4th of July, and Thanksgiving all rolled into an unbelievable 3-week period during the fall. Can’t wait for this year’s Rut Forecast? Here to satisfy your curiosity is AJ Gall, Manager of the Legendary Whitetails Community Page. He acquired his degree in wildlife management and research from the University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point and immediately began working with his passion – white-tailed deer.
Quite plainly, as hunters, it’s what we live for. Hunting magazines dedicate entire issues to it, the Outdoor Channel runs nonstop footage of it, and social media is swarmed with it. It’s the time when we feel good about every hunt and every hour we are on stand. The Rut is a deer hunter’s cocaine, when we’re not hunting it, we’re consuming it, discussing it, daydreaming of it, and waiting for it.
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We’re heading to Slinger, Wisconsin and we’re going to visit with an old friend, AJ Gall. AJ is the Legendary Whitetails’ community page manager. That means he takes all the pictures that people send in and he talks about what’s going on in the whitetail world from the stand or former blind. He’s going to talk about the 2016 Rut Forecast based on a couple of indicators.
Listen to the podcast here:
Rut Forecast With AJ Gall
We’re headed to Wisconsin and I’m going to be hunting whitetails. We’re going to stop by and legendary whitetails. We’re in Legendary Whitetails and we’re going to meet up with a friend, AJ Gall, who is the Legendary Whitetails’ community page manager. AJ, welcome back to the show.
Bruce, thanks for having me again.
We are going to talk about the Rut, but I want to let AJ tell you what Legendary Whitetails’ community page manager means or does. Can you share that with the audience?
As a community page manager, I’m in charge of all the hunting content that we put out for our consumers to use. I do a lot of writing and filming, everything deer hunting related. It’s a way for us to keep connected to our customer all year round and sharing the passion that we also live.
The Rut’s here. I know there’s tremendous floods. I saw something up at Florida, some evacuations because of the floods were having. Wisconsin was two weeks ago, the hellacious floods.
There have been a lot of rain going around, especially on the western part of the state.
We know it’s going to change some things. One, the low-lying corn, they’re going to be able to pick it, same with beans, any crops that are anywhere near a river. Fortunately, our farm is right above the Baraboo River, but there is some low-lying crops that the deer use at different times of year and that’s going to be a problem. Before we get in the Rut, address that to the people who are being impacted by these floods.
For anybody severely impacted, prayers go out to you guys. Going back to the deer movement, standing crops can have a huge impact on what you’ll see throughout the season. I know a couple of years ago, Western Wisconsin specifically, had some wet fields and then followed up by some early snowfall and those crops grew the entire winter. There’s plenty of food, but there’s also plenty of cover and when that happens, it gets pretty tough to haunt them, especially for gun owners. A lot of times, they’ll lay low in those cornfields and they’re very tough to hunt and push out.
They can bed and feed at the same spot without moving. Floods can certainly have an impact on movements, can change pinch points especially. Creatures of natural habits that are going to take the easiest path of least resistance. You can also capitalize on the flood waters if you have the right property and the right ground, say lakes get above waters and some of the crossings get washed out or river crossings. Probably going to narrow it down to spots that they can cross and funnel through.
We’re all getting excited talking about the Rut. I did some research and the first article about the rut I saw was printed in April 2016. They were starting to forecast a rut or let us know when, where, and how. If you’re not in your tree stand, if you’re not hunting, what difference does it make?
Everybody wishes they could have unlimited vacation. I usually have my one week to spend that I’m in the woods all day every day, but try to hit all the weekends pretty hard surrounding that on the days that I don’t have off. Then on the afternoons, I can shove in a few extra hours and plan my work like that. I’ll work on Thursday and try to plan for the days that are the best wind or the best stand.
Hundreds, if not thousands, of Wisconsin do exactly the same thing because it is a big deal and we got some gorgeous deer in Wisconsin. Buffalo County is well known, but in every DNR district for whitetails, you get a chance of shooting a Pope and Young for sure, and maybe that Boone and Crockett class deer. Is that a correct statement, AJ, for Wisconsin?
If you lived, you would probably think otherwise judging how the owners by state. Especially, the southern half of the northern forests and counties. They are on a rebound, but there’s certainly big animals up there. There’s not as many deer running around, especially during the rut and you can find some good mature Northwood buck.
People don’t realize that these are problematic in northern Wisconsin. Yes, we have an open season. We have a trapping season or hunting season for wolves and every year we hit the quota. Even a juvenile county where I hunt, we see wolves. There’s not a lot of big packs, but they’re there and it’s down by Slinger where you guys are at at Legendary Whitetails. Do you see wolves down there or not?
There’s been some reporting on truck cameras, but majority of what we’re looking at is coyotes down here. We’re in pretty good farmland country, so a lot of coyotes. I did a story on a guy that shot a big buck down here and he let it lay for two hours and by the time he went back to retrieve it, the whole stomach has been eaten by coyotes already. Not too many wolves down here. They’re already down into the center of the state, Marquette County, and then pretty much got the whole northern portion centered with heavier pocket of north central area. Predators are their problem. We’ve been lucky to have a couple easy winters the past two years now. No shooting of does had a started. Hopefully, that heard up north is rebounding, but I know for a while, you’d be lucky to see a deer on our set at least during gun season.
The DNR is trying to the best, but definitely if you’re hunting north of 24 between Green Bay and Minneapolis, you’ve got company in the woods. I know my friends that lived north of that highway, everybody carries a nine or whatever because it’s scary, especially when a pack of wolves lights up when you’re walking out of the woods. It’s eerie.
It is an eerie feeling and you’re not the only one out there. It’s also pretty cool to hear them light up, but I prefer them further away than closer.
I don’t know the regs. Can you carry a pistol in the woods when you’re hunting?
Yes, I do believe. I’m almost 100% positive we can.
Everything you do, we’re going to go by the book. Let’s get into Legendary Whitetails by AJ Gall, A Rut Predictions for Every Theory. Let’s jump into that article that you wrote because you’re trying to help everybody out. The moon was the first one, wasn’t it?
The rut predictions based on the moon. In the past, we’ve always had Charlie Alsheimer on our show and we’ve all had done an interview with him and put out his world-renowned rut prediction based on the moon. This would always be based off the second rutting moon after the autumn equinox. Based on when that fall, it’s give or take three days is one thing that usually start heating up after that second full moon. This year, compared to last year, it’s like a full two weeks later, which is supposed to mean to a slower trickle rut. Prolong not as not as intense.
Last year, we believe it was on October 27 or 29 that rutting moon fell. That falls right around the 1st of November when the estrogen levels in the buck, has testosterone levels and the full moon. That’s what they synchronized rut and that’s supposed to be heavy. Last year, we got some warm temperatures. I hunted three different counties in Wisconsin. I saw one mature buck, Pope and Young, three and a half years old. It wasn’t a big buck at all, a teenager, if you will. Mature bucks are four and a half years or older. Somebody might have said, “That’s a nice buck. You should shoot them.” That’s the only buck I saw the whole year and I had 20 some days it was. It was slow.
I had a couple good funds right at the end of October last year. We had some pretty cold and windy days right before it heated up and then I saw some really nice box and then after that, it just turned off. We planned our week of vacation and it was 70 degrees in Wisconsin and that’s not good. Very minimal deer movement, especially mature buck. I happened to be in the right stand last year and ended up shooting my best buck. I’m on November third, which was 75 degrees here that last to light, so I can’t complain. The two biggest bucks I’ve shot won in Iowa in 2012. It was on a 65-degree day two. That was November 15, both my biggest box have come in 65 degree or warmer temperatures, which wouldn’t be expected.
No, it wouldn’t. You’ve garnered a lot of information. Why are the stages of rut important and why did these triggers, I’m going to call them triggers. The moons are triggered. Some people believe in other people don’t. Why is it important to pay attention to it in your thinking?
The biggest thing is if we could all hunt every day of the year, we would, we’d try to. If we had enough spot too, the biggest thing is most of our serious deer hunter’s trying to plan a couple days of vacation around the rut. Any type of knowledge that they can get that’s going to heads things in their favor, which a lot of people do believe that the moon is one of those factors. Then they’re going to want to look at these dates. Compared to last year, it’s a little bit later and you’re looking at November 14th through 21st or so as the anticipated by state of the rut. Typically gun season, there’s one or two running around, it seems like still finding, but for the most part, it’s nothing like the first two weeks. It comes down to hunting pressure and all that kind of stuff.
I know the moon that picks some tides. How does the moon affect being a trigger? What does it do to the deer’s behavior? How does it do it?
It could be a question for Alsheimer, the guy behind this study, but they’re linking it to the amount of light. The light is going to affect the amount of daylight by a little bit. I don’t know the specifics of it, but I listened to what they say every year and go by that, but I’m not a real firm believer in it. That’s about all I can elaborate on for that.
You can go read Alsheimer’s during deer hunting have their article. AJ use some of their work to do it. Check that out and some people swear by it. When I’m fishing, I used different moon phases and the times of day that the fish are going to get hot or evenings or whatever and I fish to that time of day almost. I got cocky one day we’re fishing Lake Michigan and I said, “At 9:55 we’re going to get a strike.” Everybody says, “Beer time.” There were four or five of us in the boat. Everybody chipped in five bucks and went off and they were looking at me. I said, “Great.” It was funny, but that was fishing. Let’s get back to rut predictions based on biology.
If we could all hunt every day of the year, we would, we'd try to. Share on XIn terms of the moon, there’s two theories that float around. One is Alsheimer’s and La Roche’s, which is based off that the rutting moon, that second movement after the autumn equinox. Then there’s the other one it’s more based on the moon position, which is that ruling guide that you see floating, and that’s the underfoot overhead times and I’m not real familiar with that. One thing I want to do is start tracking and logging a lot more information so I can elaborate and use my past experiences and reflect on what I saw and what the conditions were like on a certain day.
I’ll throw this in, but a couple of years of experience. Winter does have a huge impact as we saw last year, and we knew some big bucks we’re going to show up this year because they didn’t get shot. They had another year, they weren’t stressed. All the factors ended up. We got plenty of food on the farm, so that’s not a problem. We’ve got cover and we got plenty of water. We’ve always had deer, like Garrett took this shoot of a 180, but we knew that was coming. My friends in Buffalo County, they said, “Bruce, we’re getting some big deer on the cameras.” You’ve got to pay attention folks. Rut predictions based on biology step two or trigger two, let’s talk about it.
Now we’re getting down to science and natural articles proven back where I put my stake down in. QDMA has several articles on this, but pretty much across the Midwest and northeast and stuff like that. The peak date pretty much falls within a given four-day period every year for the Midwest it’s right around that November 15th and it doesn’t hardly shift at all, plus or minus two days from that. They base that off of a car deer collisions usually if you measure their fetus, it almost gives you the exact backdate based on one of the scales.
John Hamilton, Founder of QDMA, came up with it, so it’s pretty accurate, pretty precise stuff. For me, it’s what I see every year. That last week in October stuff starts to ramp up. They begin making a lot more scrapes, the boxer getting ready to go. Then heading into that first week in November, they’re starting to cover a lot more ground, get other home ranges for the most part too little adventures. Then that right around that 6th of November up to the peak breeding is one. It’s pretty hot and heavy and boxer chasing though it’s hard.
It’s interesting to say everybody has heard of the lock-down period. That’s at the breeding period, isn’t it?
Peak breeding is going to be your lock-down period if you do experience it. Peak breeding’s not necessarily the best time to hunt. It’s those phases leading up to it. It’s to seek and the chase phase leading up to it, which I believe are the best. That last week of October, I feel like that’s your best chance at getting one of the bucks that you’ve been having constant trail cam pictures of on your property leading up to that because they’re not quite to that point where they’re starting to go out of their home range, but they’re covering a lot of ground within their home range and doing a lot of communication with other buck. Then after that November range, that’s when you’re going to you might start getting some of your stranger buck show up ones that you maybe had a picture to of in the summer or last season during the rut. Stuff that’s not always on your farm but around that area.
If you go by the biology, it doesn’t waver in this scientific information trends and data that’s been collected to support that. Just remember, it’s a wildcard in the cold front. Just before we go onto the Farmer’s Almanac, let’s talk about how people get in touch with you at Legendary Whitetails?
Any questions or stuff like that can be emailed at [email protected]. Otherwise, we’re very active in the social media through Facebook, Instagram. Snapchat is DeerGear.com. We do snaps of our hunts live throughout the fall whenever I’m out and doing projects dear-related. Then we got our normal site, which is DeerGear.com and from there, you can find the community page, which is where you’ll find all the hunting-related articles.
Check them out folks because AJ does a heck of a job. He’s been with Grant Woods internship with him start off with Bill Winke. He does a great job every single year. AJ’s got some game. Let’s go out in a Farmer’s Almanac. What’s that telling us?
That was fun one to throw in there. I said, “What the heck? Everybody else was thrown out these crazy predictions. Why not get some skin in the game?” I saw an ad or something come across Facebook and I’m like, “It’d be interesting to see what the Farmer’s Almanac got to say,” and look back and see how they’ve done in years past and more or less. It’s not necessarily going to tell you when the rut, but it’s supposed to tell you what season you can expect overall in terms of trends. It breaks it down on a three-day basis through the entire season or for the entire year. A year in advance, you’re getting like a three-day break down of potential weather. Probably not super accurate by any means. Just look at the weatherman these days. They can hardly get something, a day in advance. This is a fun one to throw all, but I looked at their predictions for cold fronts moving instead of tie into the next one.
For this for this year, 2016 forecasts for the Midwest read October 20th to 31st, stormy over the Ohio Valley great Lakes from wet snow could mix in, so that’s sounds like a cold front to me. Right around that Halloween time when bucks they’re starting to seek. Then November 1st or the 3rd, it’s supposed to remain cold. It looks like that 28th through the third it’ll be pretty good this year. We’ll see, it wasn’t last year I’ll make this note. They did not call for extreme warm front to come through.
I use Stom app and I liked that better than anybody for what it’s worth, folks. I checked that religiously 24 hours before the next day. In the morning, I check it and then I go. Right before I go to bed, I come back on it to see am I really getting up at 4:30 AM or not, because we’re going to talk about this next. If you do anything, forget all the rut, the moon and biology and a Farmer’s Almanac, forget all that. If a cold front coming through called in sick and do it on the front-end and the back-end. You don’t want to sit in the tree if it’s 40 mile an hour winds and rain sideways or snow and hail and sleet. Take the date, go back to work. On the front-end of that, eight hours, you’re going to have to help me with this AJ, how many hours before the front hits should I be hunting and how many hours after it?
That one in front of it is if you can get out there, the half. If it’s supposed to land during the night, then that afternoon it’s probably going to be pretty good, especially depending on the significance of the drop and the cold front that’s pushing through, but then after if you can time it and as soon as it blows through it, it can be magical. It’s rain or whatever, if it drops from 65 down to 48 in the rain. If you can be sitting in your truck and watching that radar blow through and then walking out as soon as that rain stops, you’re going to be in for a probably a pretty good evening, but if it remains cold, then I’m your best action it’s going to be pretty much right after it blows through just because they’ve been most likely bedded down during that storm and they’re going to get up and feed, especially with it being cold. If it remains cold, then you should have pretty good hunting conditions for however long those temperatures remained down there.
What’s the temperature differential? You mentioned 65 to 40-ish. We’ll throw in twenty degrees swing. Is a ten-degree differential advantageous or if it goes from 70 to 60?
If it’s around that fifteen-degree mark, then you’re in for a pretty good switch. I’d still keep my eye on ten degrees, especially around the time of the rut. It’s supposed to go from 73 down to bedrock and 60 with some rain pushing through. Those blocks on it can be moving too much with their winter clothes since it’s 73 degrees here. That ten-degree drop and after some rain, this is going to be a pretty good time to hunt early season anyway. Usually right around that fifteen-degree mark, if you have steady cold temperatures during the rut, then ten-year old 55 degrees is pretty good and the colder the better. If you can get around 40 of the entire rut then you should be rocking.
Bill Winke, if you go to Midwest Whitetail, he’ll always say, “Hunt in the cold front. Call in sick,” do whatever because you combine the cold front with the rut and it just switches lights on, changes gear, follow it if you want to say it. I liked what you said, the tip. Sit in your truck, long distant lasts, what’s your food plots? Wherever you’re hunting, if you can wear your glasses even a spotting scope from a distance. Then as soon as that rain changes, figure out what standards right to the wind and sneak in there. Don’t go busing in there. Forget your ATV. Just walk in there. I’m very serious about this because so many guys jumped on an ATV and wheeling up enough and how are you going to stand up? You just blew it in my opinion. AJ, your thoughts on that?
Just keep your eye on that radar. I know a lot of times we’ll take camera equipment, so we can’t be sitting out in the rain, but even if you could walk in, right before it blows down, if you don’t mind getting a little drizzle on you, then you have the cover of the rain and the overall noise of the woods at that time when it’s raining. They’re usually still bedded. It’s like a light switch as soon as it stops raining those deer. I remember specifically when I hunt in Iowa back in 2012. We were walking in right as the rain headlight up and walk in these logging roads back onto some deer on our feet. We spent the first two hours still hunting because there’s deer moving all over. I don’t even know if we made it into the list, into the stand for the last half an hour that night. We had some close encounters with some nice buck, so it was like a light switch.
Thanks to AJ and Legendary Whitetails. AJ, give shout outs to whomever and Gerald there and the crew at Legendary Whitetails or whoever you want.
We got a pretty awesome group of people here. Gerald runs all our social media for Legendary Whitetails. He’s the one that they’ll be interacting with most of the time on Facebook. I’ll be answering questions and stuff like that on our articles. Then a pretty exciting stuff. We got a bunch of awesome apparel choices this year for the upcoming fall. Bunch of new flannels. Awesome shirts. Finally, I’m excited about is we’re going to be releasing our first line of camel clothing products. We have a pretty awesome fall line up here at or Legendary Whitetails. Come and get your gifts.
Peak breeding is going to be your lock-down period if you do experience it. Share on XIf you haven’t checked them out, go to LegendaryWhitetails.com. Is that correct?
LegendaryWhitetails.com, we’re pretty easy to find. I’ll get your deer camp central. We got an awesome apparels selection line every for hunters in the everyday market. It’s not just hunting clothing that you wear during the hunted stuff are all year round. I’s pretty neat.
We talked about the hunting tradition and Legendary Whitetails, that’s what they do. They help us live the hunting tradition 365 days a year. I’m very thankful for AJ Gall, running through his for three years of the rut With thousands our thousands of audience across North America. On behalf of them, AJ, thank you so much for being on the show.
Not a problem, Bruce. Thanks a lot for having me.
Tune in to the next exciting Carry on to the Rut with Audrey Pfaffe. Audrey is from Western Wisconsin. She didn’t Buffalo County but she hunts at county right north of there. She’s got some nice bucks on her land there in Pepin County. She’s also the owner of Monarch Whitetail Nutrition. As she says, “Nutrition keeps a balanced herd and grows big bucks.” Tune in. Audrey is going to have a two-part show, so you’re going to like it.