Curious about this year’s rut forecast? AJ Gall, manager of the Legendary Whitetails Community Page, explores hunting during 2016’s peak breeding and lockdown period. His prior hunting and wildlife experiences began long ago and make him the perfect in-house whitetail addict. Peak breeding is not necessarily the best time to hunt. It’s the seek-and-chase phases leading up to it, which AJ believes are the best – often within the last week of October. That’s your best chance at getting one of the bucks that you’ve been having constant trail cam pictures up on your property. If you go by the biology, it doesn’t waiver in this scientific information trends and data that’s been collected to support that. Just remember that weather again. It’s a wildcard in the cold front.
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We’re heading to Slinger, Wisconsin and we’re going to visit with an old friend, AJ Gall. AJ is the Legendary Whitetails Community Page Manager. That means he takes all the pictures that people send in and he talks about what’s going on in the whitetail world from the stand or from a blind. He’s going to talk about the 2016 rut forecast based on four indicators.
Listen to the podcast here:
Rut Forecast With AJ Gall
AJ, welcome back to the show.
Bruce, thanks for having me again.
We are going to talk about the rut, but I wanted AJ to tell you what Legendary Whitetails Community Page Manager means or does. Can you share that with everyone?
As the Community Page Manager, basically I’m in charge of all the hunting content that we put out for our consumers to use. I do a lot of writing, some filming, and stuff like that. Everything deer hunting related. It’s a way for us to keep connected to our customer all year round and sharing the passion that we also live.
I know there are tremendous floods. I just saw something up the Florida. There are some evacuations because of the floods were having. In Wisconsin, two weeks ago, the hellacious, hellacious floods.
There had been a lot of rain going around, especially on the Western part of the state.
We know it’s going to change some things. One, the low-lying corn, they’re going to be able to pick it, the same with beans, any crops that are in anywhere near a river. Fortunately, our farm is right above the Baraboo River. There are some low-lying crops that the deer use at different times of year and that’s going to be a problem. Before we get to rut, just address that to the people who are being impacted by these floods.
For anybody severely impacted, prayers go out to you guys. Going back to the deer movement, standing crops can have a huge impact on what you’ll see throughout the season. I know a couple of years ago, I think Western Wisconsin specifically had some wet fields and then followed up by some early snowfall in those crops through the entire winter. There’s plenty of food, but there’s also plenty of cover and when that happens, it gets pretty tough to hunt theme especially for gun hunters. A lot of times they’ll lay low in those cornfields and they’re just very tough to hunt or push out. They can bed and feed at the same spot without moving. Floods can certainly have an impact on movements, can change pinch points, especially. They’re creatures of natural habits, so they’re going to take the easiest path of least resistance. You can also capitalize on the flood waters if you have the right property and the right ground that does suit that, say lakes get above waters and some of the crossings get washed out or river crossings. Probably going to narrow it down to spots that they can cross and funnel through.
We’re all getting excited. We’re talking about the rut. I did some research and the first article about the rut I saw was printed in April 2016. They were starting to forecast a rut or let us know when, where and how and like we talked in the warm up AJ, if you’re not in your tree stand, if you’re not hunting, what difference does it make?
Everybody wishes they could have unlimited vacation. I usually have my one week to spend that I’m in the woods, all day, every day, but I try to hit all the weekends pretty hard surrounding that on the days that I don’t have off and any afternoons that I can shove in a few extra hours and plan my work weeks like that. I’ll work on certain days and try to plan for the days with the best wind or the best stand.
Thousands in Wisconsin do exactly the same thing. It is a big deal and we got some gorgeous deer in Wisconsin. Buffalo County is well known, but I think in every DNR district for whitetails, you get a chance of shooting a Pope and Young for sure and maybe that Boone and Crockett class deer. Is that a correct statement, AJ for Wisconsin?
If you lived here you would probably think otherwise judging by how the hunters talked about the state especially the Southern half. The Northern forested counties are on a rebound, but if you know how to hunt up there, there are certainly big animals up there. There’s not as many deer running around especially during the rut, but you can find some really good mature Northwood bucks.
For people who don’t realize, the wolves are problematic in Northern Wisconsin. Yes, we have an open season. We have a trapping season or hunting season for wolves and every year we hit the quota and even Juneau County where I hunt, we see wolves. There are not a lot of big packs, but they’re there. Down by Slinger where you guys are at, at Legendary Whitetails, do you see wolves down there or not?
There’s been some recordings on trail cameras, but majority of what we’re looking at are coyotes down here. We’re a pretty good farmland country so lots and lot of coyotes. In fact, I just did a story on a guy that shot a really big buck down here and he let it lay for two hours and by the time he went back to retrieve it, the whole stomach had been eaten out by coyotes already. Not too many wolves down here. They’re down into the center of the State, Marquette County, and then pretty much got the whole Northern portion centered with heavier pockets, in North Central area. Predators, they’re a problem. We’ve been lucky to have a couple easy winters the past two years now. No shooting of does have started. Hopefully, that herd up north is rebounding. I know for awhile there, you’d be lucky to see a deer on our sit at least during gun season.
The DNR is trying to do the best, but definitely if you’re hunting North of 24 between Green Bay and Minneapolis, you’ve got company in the woods. I know my friends that lived north of that highway, everybody carries a nine or whatever because it’s scary, especially when a pack of wolves lights up when you’re walking out of the woods.
It is an eerie feeling when you’re not the only one out there. It’s also pretty cool to hear them light up, but I prefer them further away than closer.
I don’t know the regs. Can you carry a pistol in the woods when you’re archery hunting?
Yeah, I do believe. I’m almost 100% positive you can.
I just wanted to lay that out because everything you do, we’re going to go buy the book. I’ll just leave it at that. Let’s get into Legendary Whitetails by AJ Gall Rut Predictions for Every Theory. Let’s jump into that article that you wrote just because you’re trying to help everybody out.
The rut predictions based on the moon. In the past we’ve always had Charlie Alsheimer on our show. We’ve all had done an interview with him and put out his world renowned rut prediction based on the moon. His would always be based off of the rutting moon after the autumn equinox. Based on that fall, it’s give or take three days is one thing, it usually starts heating up after that second full moon. This year, compared to last year, it’s like a full two weeks later, which is supposed to mean a slower trickle rut, prolonged, not as intense. Last year, we believe it was on October 27th when that rutting moon fell. The fall is right around the 1st of November when the doe estrogen levels and the buck’s testosterone and then the full moon coordinate and synced up. That’s what they call a synchronize rut. It’s supposed to be hot and heavy, but as many of us know, last year we got some really warm temperatures.
I hunt at three different counties in Wisconsin. I saw one buck, Pope and Young, two and a half, three and a half years old. It wasn’t a big buck at all, a teenager. I saw one that, somebody might have said, “That’s nice buck. You should shoot him.” That’s the only shooter buck, I saw the whole year and I hunted twenty some days.
It was slow. I had a couple good hunts right at the end of October last year. We had some pretty cold and windy days right before it really heated up and then I saw some really nice buck and then after that it just turned off. We planned our week of vacation and it was 70 degrees every day in Wisconsin and that’s not good. Very minimal deer movement, especially mature buck. I happen to be in the right stand last year and ended up shooting my best buck on November 3rd, which was 75 degrees here. I can’t complain. The two biggest bucks I’ve shot actually, one in Iowa in 2012 was on a 65-degree day two. Both my biggest bucks have come in 65-degree or warmer temperatures, which wouldn’t be expected.
No, it wouldn’t, but you’ve garnered a lot of information. Why are the stages of rut important and why did these triggers, the moons are trigger, some people believe in and other people don’t, why is it important to pay attention to it in your thinking?
The biggest thing is if we could all hunt every day of the year, we would or we’d try to, if we had enough spot to. The biggest thing is most of our serious deer hunters try to plan a couple days of vacation around the rut. Any type of knowledge that they can get that’s going to try to heads things in their favor, which a lot of people do believe that the moon is one of those factors, then they’re going to want to look at these dates. Compared to last year, it’s a little bit later and you’re looking at November 14th through November 21st or so as the anticipated by stage of the rut.
The end of it falls right on the beginning of gun season.
Typically, gun season, there’s one or two running around. It seems like they’re still finding those does, but for the most part, it’s nothing like the first two weeks of November. Again, it comes down to hunting pressure and all that stuff.
I know the moon affects the tide. Now, how does the moon, being a trigger, what does it do to the deer’s behavior and how does it do it?
For specifics, I got no idea. That’d be a question for Alsheimer and Laroche, the guys behind the study, but they’re linking it to the amount of light. The, full moon, specifically, is going to affect the amount of daylight by just a little bit. I don’t know the deep specifics of it but I listened to what they say every year and go by that, but I’m not a firm believer in that. That’s about all I can elaborate on for that.
You can go read Alsheimer’s and Laroche’s thing during deer hunting. They have their article. AJ use some of their work to do it. Check that out. Some people swear by it. When I’m fishing, I used the different moon phases and the times of day that the fish are going to get hot or evenings or whatever and I fished to that. Let’s get back to rut predictions based on biology.
In terms of the moon, there are two theories that float around. One is Alsheimer’s and Laroche’s which is based off the rutting moon, that second movement after the autumn equinox. Then there’s the other one that is more based on the moon position, which is that moon guide that you see floating around and that’s the underfoot overhead times. I’m not real familiar with that. One thing I want to do as a hunter this year is start tracking and logging a lot more information, so I can elaborate and use my past experiences and reflect on what I saw and what the conditions were like on a certain day.
I’ll throw this in, but a couple of years of experience. Weather does have a huge impact as we saw last year and we knew some big bucks are going to show up this year because they didn’t get shot. They had another year. They weren’t stressed. All the factors ended up. We got plenty of food on the farm, so that’s not a problem. We’ve got cover and we got plenty of water. We’ve always had deer, but we just didn’t have like Garrett took this year a 180 deer. We knew that was coming and my friends in Buffalo County, they said, “Bruce, we’re getting some big deer on the cameras.” You’ve got to pay attention folks. That’s all I’m trying to say. Rut predictions based on biology, step two or trigger two. Let’s talk about it.
We’re getting down to the science and actual articles, proven facts. This is where I put my stakes down in. QDMA has several articles on this, but pretty much across the Midwest and Northeast and stuff like that. The peak date pretty much falls within a given four-day period every year. For Midwest, it’s right around that November 15th and it doesn’t hardly shift at all, plus or minus two days from that. They base that off of a car-deer collision. Usually if you measure their fetus, it almost gives you the exact back-date based on one of the scales that John Hamilton, the founder of QDMA, came up with. It’s pretty accurate, pretty precise stuff. For me it’s what I see every year. That last week in October, stuff starts to ramp up. They begin making a lot more scrapes, the bucks are getting ready to go and then heading into that first week in November. They’re starting to cover a lot more ground, get other home ranges for the most part, too little adventures. Then right around that 6th of November up to the peak breeding, is one that’s pretty hot and heavy and bucks are chasing does hard.
It’s interesting to say everybody has heard of the lock down period. Now, that’s at the peak breeding period, isn’t it?
Peak breeding is going to be your lock down period. If you do experience it. Peak breeding is not necessarily the best time to hunt. It’s those phases leading up to it. It’s the seek and the chase phase leading up to it, which I believe are the best and I’ll break it down like this. That last week of October, I feel that’s your best chance at getting one of the bucks that you’ve been having constant trail cam pictures up on your property leading up to that. They’re not quite to that point where they’re starting to go out of their home range, but they’re covering a lot of ground within their home range, doing a lot of communication with other bucks. Then after that November range, that’s when you might start getting some of your stranger buck show up. Ones that you maybe had a picture or two of in the summer or last season during the rut that’s not always on your farm but around that area.
If you go by the biology, it doesn’t waiver and there’s enough scientific information trends and data that’s been collected to support that. Just remember that whether again, it’s a wildcard in the cold front and we’re going to talk about that last, but just before we go onto the Farmer’s Almanac, let’s talk about how people get in touch with you at Legendary Whitetails.
Any questions or stuff like that can be emailed at [email protected]. Otherwise, we’re very active in the social media through Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat is DeerGear.com. We do snaps of our hunts live throughout the fall whenever I’m out and doing projects deer-related. Then we got our normal site which is DeerGear.com and from there you can find the community page, which is where you’ll find all the hunting related articles.
Check them out folks because AJ does a heck of a job. He’s been with Grant Woods, in summer internship with him. He started off with Bill Winke there in Iowa. He does a great job every single year. AJ’s got some game. Let’s go on into Farmer’s Almanac. What’s that telling us?
That was fun one to throw in there. I said, “What the heck? Everybody else was throwing out these crazy rut predictions. Why not get some skin in the game?” I saw an ad or something come across Facebook and I’m like, “It’d be interesting to see what the Farmer’s Almanac has to say,” and look back and see how they’ve done in years past and more or less. It’s not necessarily going to tell you when the rut is but it’s supposed to tell you what season you can expect overall in terms of weather trends. It actually breaks it down on a three-day basis through the entire year. A year in advance you’re getting a three-day break down of potential weather. Probably not super accurate by any means. Just look at the weatherman these days they can hardly get something a day in advance. This is a fun one to throw out, but I looked at their predictions for cold fronts moving instead of tie into the next one. For this year, the 2016 forecasts for the Midwest reads October 20th to 31st stormy over the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes some wet snow could mix in. Right around that Halloween time when bucks are starting to seek. Then November 1st through the 3rd, it’s supposed to remain cold. It looks like that 28th through the 3rd, it’ll be pretty good this year. We’ll see, it wasn’t last year. I’ll just make this note, they did not call for the extreme warm front to come through.
I used Storm. I use that app and I liked that better than anybody for what it’s worth. I checked that religiously 24 hours before the next day. In the morning, I check it and then right before I go to bed, I come back on it to see, “Am I really going to get up at 4:30 or not?” If you do anything, forget all the rut, the moon and biology and Farmer’s Almanac, forget all that. If a cold front’s coming through call in sick and do it on the frontend and the backend. You don’t want to sit in the tree if it’s 30 to 40 mile an hour winds and rain sideways or snow and hail and sleet. Take the date, go back to work. But on the frontend of that, eight hours, you’re going to have to help me with this AJ, how many hours before the front hits should I be hunting and how many hours after it?
If it’s supposed to land during the night, then that afternoon it’s probably going to be pretty good, especially depending on the significance of the drop and cold front that’s pushing through. If you can time it and be in that wood as soon as it blows through, it can be magical. If it’s rain or whatever, if it drops from 65 down to 48 in the rain. You could be sitting in your truck and watching that radar blow through and then walking out, as soon as that rain stops, you’re going to be in for probably pretty good evening. If it remains cold, your best action is going to be pretty much right after it blows through just because they’ve been most likely bedded down during that storm and they’re going to get up and feed, especially with it being colder. If it remains cold, then you should have pretty good hunting conditions for however long those temperatures remained down there.
What’s the temperature differential? You just mentioned 65 to 40-ish. Let’s throw in a twenty degrees swing. Is a ten-degree differential advantageous or if it goes from 70 to 60? I’m thinking, “So what?”
If it’s around that fifteen-degree mark, then you’re in for a pretty good switch. I’d still keep my eye on ten degrees, especially around the time of the rut. Those bucks won’t be moving too much in 73 degrees here. That ten-degree drop in after some rain is going to be a pretty good time to hunt the early season anyway. Usually, right around that fifteen-degree mark and if you have steady cold temperatures during the rut, then you’re golden. Anything below 55 degrees is pretty good and the colder the better. If you can get around 30 to 40 of the entire rut, then you should be really rocking.
Bill Winke, if you go to Midwest whitetails, he’ll always say, “Hunt the cold front. Call in sick, do whatever,” because you combine the cold front with the rut and it switches the lights on, changes gear. I liked what you said, the tip. Sit in your truck, long distant class, watch your food plots. Wherever you’re hunting, if you can, with your glasses, even a spotting scope from a distance and then as soon as that rain changes, figure out what standards right to the wind and sneak in there. Don’t go busing in there. Forget your ATV. Just walk in there. I’m very serious about this because so many guys jumped on an ATV and go wheeling up and how many yards going to the stand? You just blew it in my opinion. AJ, your thoughts on that?
Just keep your eye on that radar. I know a lot of times we’ll take camera equipment, so we can’t be sitting out in the rain. Even if you could walk in, right before it blows down, if you don’t mind getting a little drizzle on you, then you can have the cover of the rain and just the overall noise of the woods at that time when it’s raining and they’re usually still bedded. It’s like a light switch as soon as it stops raining. I remember specifically one hunt in Iowa, when we were walking in right as the rain had light up. Walking these logging roads back onto some public and there was this deer on their feet. We spent the first two hours still hunting because there’s just deer moving all over. I don’t even know if we made it into the stand for the last half hour that night. We had some close encounters with some really nice bucks. It was like a light switch.
Thanks to AJ and Legendary Whitetail. AJ, give shout outs to whomever and Gerald there and the crew at Legendary Whitetails or whoever you want.
We got a pretty awesome group of people here. Gerald runs all our social media for Legendary Whitetails. He’s the one that they’ll be interacting with most of the time on Facebook. I’ll be answering questions and stuff like that on our articles. We got a bunch of awesome apparel choices this year for the upcoming fall. A bunch of new flannels. Some awesome shirts. Finally, I’m excited about is we’re going to be releasing our first line of camel clothing products. We have a pretty awesome fall lined up here at Legendary Whitetails. Come and get your gifts.
If you haven’t checked them out, go to LegendaryWhitetails.com. Is that correct?
Legendary Whitetails will work, DeerGear.com. We’re pretty easy to find. We got an awesome apparels selection line for hunters in the everyday market. It’s not just hunting clothing that you wear during the hunt. It’s the stuff you can wear the whole year round.
We talked about the hunting tradition and Legendary Whitetails, that’s what they do. They help us live the hunting tradition 365 days a year. I’m very thankful for AJ Gall, running through his four triggers of the rut with everyone across North America. On behalf of them, AJ, thank you so much for being on the show.
Not a problem, Bruce. Thanks a lot for having me.